Analysis: How did CD Projekt dethrone Ubisoft on the stock market?

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It's been a long time since Ubisoft was challenged on the stock market by another company in the video game field. It's now done! For a day, the Polish studio CD Projekt Red (at the origin of the saga The Witcher) passed him by a short head. And the duel has only just begun.  The atmosphere must be good in the studios of CD Projekt. Barely time to blow out the candles of the fifth anniversary of The Witcher 3, that a news of a whole new magnitude has already made him forget. For one day, the Polish studio became the most expensive video game company on the European market. It weighed 8.13 billion euros, against 8.12 for the defending champion Ubisoft. The Guillemot brothers' company has since taken over the leadership, but for how much longer?

CD Projekt: a success story… Polish style

The feat is great, but some clues suggested such a flight of the Polish studio. Founded in 1997, CD Projekt is known in the field for being behind three major titles. They are all united in the same trilogy: The Witcher. An adaptation of the literary saga known as "Sorceleur" in French, written between 1990 and 2018 by Andrzej Sapkowski. We find the adventures of Geralt of Rivia, a mutant man with supernatural abilities. It is torn between hunting monsters and wars that shake different kingdoms. the witcher entete Analysis: How did CD Projekt dethrone Ubisoft on the stock market? CD Projekt acquires the rights and releases in 2007 the first opus of the saga: The Witcher. An action-RPG type game in isometric view only developed on PC (despite announcements of porting on Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 finally aborted). It is very well received by the specialized press. So much so that the game exceeds the bar of 1.2 million copies sold, entering de facto in the top 100 best selling video games on PC. The success is at the rendezvous and the rest is not long in coming. CD Projekt continues with The Witcher 2: Assassins of Kings, four years later, on PC and a year later on Xbox 360. The reception is even better than for the previous episode! The review aggregator Metacritic even gave it a glowing 88/100. In 2012, the Polish studio announced that it had surpassed the 1.7 million copies sold mark (a figure that must have evolved since then).

Never two without The Witcher 3

The same year begins the development of the game that will definitively establish CD Projekt's position on the European market: The Witcher 3 – Wild Hunt. The title was released three years later on PC, Xbox One and PlayStation 4. It follows the story started in the first games and offers the player for the first time a totally open world. The scenario is new (even for readers of the paper work) and offers a long main quest, full of choices and twists. The side quests are countless and allow to deepen throughout the adventure the already rich lore of the saga. Quite logically, the critics are unanimous and the success of the title is phenomenal. In less than a year, more than 10 million copies were sold worldwide. The game is embellished with two expansions in 2015 and 2017, which allow it to be released later in "Complete Edition" version.

Unity is the strength of CD Projekt and Netflix

The game stands out as a reference of the genre but still ends up being forgotten. CD Projekt returns to the charge in 2019 and releases a port of its title on the latest version of Nintendo, the Switch. For the first time, opinions differ. The content remains the same, but the technical constraints of the portable console make it lose its superb. Fortunately, the reputation of the game is well established. As of 2019, more than 6 million copies are sold on the Switch version alone. In total, across all platforms, The Witcher 3 has sold more than 28 million copies. A total success that was just waiting for the icing on the cake. An adaptation of the witcher on the number one video-on-demand platform in the world… Netflix. https://youtu.be/bGFpSNKtLlc Netflix has 183 million subscribers, not counting the number of users per account. The first teaser of the series was unveiled with great fanfare by the American firm at the Comic Con in July 2019 in San Francisco. An event at the height of a saga now known worldwide. Henry Cavill (the latest Superman to appear in Man of Steel, Batman v Superman and Justice League) takes on the features of a truly convincing Geralt of Rivia. The series, although criticized, is a commercial success and a season 2 has already been announced by Netflix. The news is excellent for CD Projekt! Without paying a penny, a new global audience has just been born for its flagship license.

Ubisoft in decline

2019 wasn't as good for Ubisoft. And this is even the words of its CEO Yves Guillemot, in a press release dated last October. The group has achieved a good expansion in the mobile field in Asia, but the two "triple A" titles of the year have sold much less well than expected. First of all, Ghost Recon Breakpoint was very poorly received by critics and players. In question: the too weak innovations brought by the title compared to the previous episode. But also novelties little appreciated by the regulars of the series. The second title in question, The Division 2, simply seems not to have attracted enough players. https://twitter.com/ZhugeEX/status/1187483131399393281?s=20 As a result, the company's revenues were much lower than expected. For the period 2019 – 2020, the turnover was "only" 1.45 billion euros against the 2.18 billion estimated. Regarding the net income from the operation of securities already on the market, it is even worse. The group earned between 20 and 50 million euros against the 480 million expected. The consequence was immediate: Ubisoft postponed the release of its next three triple-A ratings planned to refine them in the studio. Gods & Monsters, Rainbow Six: Quarantine and Watch_Dogs Legion will be released by April 2021. These various announcements have frightened the shareholders of the group. Ubisoft's stock collapsed the day after this release, before slowly returning to normal in the following months. bourse Analysis: How did CD Projekt dethrone Ubisoft on the stock market?

A very complicated year 2020

Trouble resumed at the beginning of May 2020. Now very committed to mobile gaming, Ubisoft has filed a complaint against the two giants Apple and Google who both offer the download of a title largely inspired by Rainbow Six: Siege. According to financial analyst Charles-Louis Planade interviewed by Les Echos, the damage is only "a few million per year, not tens of millions". Translation: Ubisoft is taking legal action against Goliath and Goliath for not much. And shareholders don't like it. Thus, on May 19, the value of Ubisoft's shares fell by more than 5%. Since the company's market value (its market capitalization) is equal to the share price multiplied by the number of securities outstanding, Ubisoft lost value. Briefly leaving the first place to CD Projekt.

A duel that is likely to last

At the time of writing, the two companies are neck and neck. Ubisoft is worth 8.420 billion euros while CD Projekt is worth 8.398 billion. What matters now are the assets kept in hand by both companies. On the side of Ubisoft, the year promises to be busy. The studio plans to release four triple-A games, not counting its spearhead Assassin's Creed Valhalla, recently announced with a first teaser. And the numbers are very encouraging: the video reached 100 million views in just 10 days. A first for the French studio. The Viking Age is highly appreciated by the public and the innovations involved seem substantial. https://twitter.com/Ubisoftpress/status/1260997729213349889?s=20

CD Projekt prepares the counterattack

At CD Projekt, there are fewer but long overdue projects. The most important is called Cyberpunk 2077. An action-RPG set in a dystopian futuristic world, whose development began in parallel with The Witcher 3. The first teaser dates back to 2013, but the game premiered at E3 2018. CD Projekt announces a grandiose project with a "perfect" rendering. For this reason, the game's planned release in April was finally pushed back to September 17, 2020. The second project depends directly on the first. Once Cyberpunk 2077 is released, it will be a matter of developing the highly anticipated sequel to The Witcher saga. CD Projekt has taught us to be patient, so it will take several years to get our hands on, hopefully, a great new game. The duel that settles between Ubisoft and CD Projekt seems to have just begun. Once undisputed in Europe, the Guillemot brothers' company is now facing fierce competition. For more than ten years, the Polish studio has only climbed the ladder. It has established itself as a reference in the world of open-world fantasy. Everything will be played out between now and the end of the year, where two blockbusters will compete on equal terms: Assassin's Creed Valhalla against Cyberpunk 2077. Two radically different atmospheres, two very distinct eras, but very real financial stakes. 

Cyberpunk 2077 – Trailer

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qIcTM8WXFjk