In a Brazil plagued by a persistent economic crisis, widespread corruption (political and economic) and a climate of great insecurity, the result fell this Sunday, October 8: the far-right candidate Jair Bolsonaro (social-liberal party) came out ahead in the presidential race with 46% of the vote.
A landslide victory for this "Trump Tropical"?
Bolsonaro is not unanimous, however: accused of making sexist, misogynistic remarks ("I will not rape you, because you do not deserve it" in 2014), racist, homophobic ("Iwould be unable to love a homosexual son" in 2011) and extremely controversial ("The mistake of the dictatorship was to torture without killing" in 2016), It is pointed out by many Brazilians. Many movements against him are emerging such as "Women against Bolsonaro", "EleNao" ("not him") and mobilize to block the victory of the favorite candidate. A fervent defender of the interests of agribusiness and the liberalization of the carrying of weapons, Bolsonaro intends to rely in Parliament on the support of conservative lobbies, thus stirring up the wrath of anti-lobbyists.
Whoever believes he represents the values of the family, God and justice is nevertheless declared the winner of the second round, with a 75% chance of winning against the candidate from the Workers' Party, Haddad, who came second with 29.3% of the vote. But the first victory has a bitter taste for the far-right candidate, who thought he would celebrate his complete and definitive victory in the first round, hoping to win more than 50% of the vote.
HADDAD, "LULA's lamppost" against BOLSONARO
Former President Lula, imprisoned since April for corruption, was declared ineligible in September. It is therefore Haddad who belatedly takes up the torch. Even behind bars, he remained the favorite with 30% of the voting intentions. Assured of being able to "elect a lamppost" with Lula's sole support, Fernando Haddad willingly presented himself as "Lula's lamppost". Floor lamp that was able to climb to the2nd round on Sunday. Notably thanks to a strong policy against social, regional, gender and racial inequalities. For example, it pledges to increase the minimum wage and universalize the population's access to health and education. Haddad must now succeed in fully mobilizing Lula's voters for this second round, while finding his own profile.
What are the real and tangible risks for Brazilians?
For now, instability reigns. Oddly, investors' perception of risk is lower. Bolsonaro would appear to be able to put in place a credible plan to address the country's main economic challenges. Brazil's budget deficit reaches 7% of its GDP. The market is "relieved" of Bolsonaro's score, compared to Haddad's. Indeed, his policies would not have helped Brazil out of the economic depression it is experiencing.
Concretely, 1€ was worth between 4.5 and 4.9 reals in August. Today, 1€ is worth between 4.2 and 4.3 reals. If Brazilians do not perceive any major difference on a daily basis, a French expat is well aware of it! The purchasing power of French nationals using European bank accounts has really diminished since these elections. And this is a situation that is likely to continue. The fall would continue until €1 equals 3.9 reals.
While Bolsonaro came close to victory in the first round, the one on October 28 is still uncertain. Haddad notably won the support of Ciro Gomes (Democratic Labour Party), which came third with 12.5% of the vote. Business to follow.
